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S Illinois | The first data point that always leads to higher yields is July-Aug temps. Cooler than average temps are always beneficial when it comes to national yield. Yes a week of hot and dry in July during pollination can wreck havoc on a corn crop, but cool means longer fill time and less plant respiration at night. The other is many areas normally have too much water to contend with. What those areas are less experienced in is what a plant can handle and what moisture the soil can provide. I am not a big fan of the "powder dry all the way down", etc type posts because that tells little as to what is actually available. When one is used to the water table at 3-4', the lack of excess water maybe alarming. However excess, drainable type water was never plant available. So not seeing water in an excavation hole or not being able to make a mud ball isn't proof that there is no moisture for the plant.
2004 was a once in a generation year for those from roughly C IA south. Extremely cool July-Aug with regular rainfall and possibly most importantly an abnormal amount of cold fronts that cleared cloud cover out and meant clear skys. All of that maximized what the corn plants could do. Unfortunately that isn't this year. 2014 is still a stronger candidate for an analog year. It just happened to be the same year that the very areas of NW IA, SE SD got flooded in June set many of the water flow records. It was a little drier this year to finish so we are unlikely to see a national average that much above trend, but a good crop nonetheless.
Here are some of the data points I use
2024 July-Aug temps
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which...
2023 July-Aug temps
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which...
As to 6 bu better, we can automatically subtract 2 just because of the yield growth trend due to the combination of all agronomic factors. So the question is can we see 4 bu growth. We have IA overall in a much better shape than last year and IL has had better weather when compared to last year making the 2 biggest acre states in better overall condition. That goes a long way to pulling up the average. Annectodally there seems to be less complaining this year compared to last year. The issue of being a national record is likely where the hangup comes from as that sort of implies that everyone has a record crop. We haven't had that 2004 blowout yield year lately so we don't have that high bar to reach making trend yield increase and record yields be one in the same.
July 15-Sept 15 precipitation.
2023
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which...
2024
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which...
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Driest August 15-September 15 ever…..
